2026-06-08
In the first four months of 2026, the primary real estate market of the Republic of Armenia recorded significantly higher activity compared to the same period of the previous year. In January-April, 5,893 purchase rights were registered, while in the same period of 2025 this figure was 2,208.
This means that in the first four months of the year, the market increased by 3,685 purchase rights, or by around 167%. It is important that this growth was formed not due to one separate month, but throughout the entire period, showing a consistent increase in market activity.
This picture indicates that 2026 has already started from a higher base for the market. The actual indicators of the first four months create the foundation on which the May forecast becomes not only another monthly assessment, but also an important benchmark for understanding whether the market is maintaining the newly formed level of activity.
It is visible from the graph that the forecasted figure for May is 1,450 purchase rights. If the forecast is confirmed, May 2026 will also significantly exceed the indicator of the same month of the previous year, as 591 purchase rights were registered in May 2025. This means that if the May forecast is confirmed, the annual growth will be around 145%. In numerical terms, this means 859 more purchase rights compared to the same month of the previous year.
At the same time, it is important to note that the May forecast has decreased relatively compared to the high activity of April. However, this does not reduce the overall assessment of market activity. April was formed as a month of particularly high activity, while the forecasted figure of 1,450 for May, being more moderate, still remains significantly higher both compared to May 2025 and to a number of months of the previous year.
From this perspective, May can be viewed not as a weakening of growth, but as a transition to a more stable level of market activity.
The data from the first months of 2026 show that the market is moving not only into a growth phase, but also into a stabilization phase. If at the beginning of the year the increase in activity could have been perceived as the effect of accelerated demand or separate factors, then the high indicators maintained over several months already form a more structural picture.
April’s high activity can be viewed as the result of a combination of several factors. The “Tun Expo” held at the end of March created additional interest in the market and accelerated buyers’ decision-making. At the same time, the phased payment mechanisms offered by developers reduced the initial financial burden of purchasing. These tools made the primary market especially active, making it more accessible both for homebuyers and for investors.
The May forecast has special significance in this context. The level of 1,450 purchase rights shows that even after the April peak, the market is not returning to the previous year’s lower average levels. On the contrary, it maintains a volume that exceeds not only May 2025, but also the indicators of a number of months in the first half of the previous year.
This is an important circumstance, because a stable market is not measured only by the highest indicator. What is more important is the level at which the market stabilizes after the peak. If the May forecast is confirmed, it can be stated that the 2026 market has begun to operate under conditions of a higher base level of activity.
The confirmation of the May forecast may become the point that proves that the high activity of 2026 is not a temporary market fluctuation. The actual indicators of the first four months have already formed a strong start, and the forecasted May figure of 1,450 may strengthen the perception that the market has entered a new volume phase.
If we consider the January-May period, 2,799 purchase rights were registered in 2025, while according to the actual data of the first four months of 2026 and the May forecast, this figure may reach 7,343. This means that in the first five months of the year, the market may exceed the same period of the previous year by around 162%.
The May forecast is important not only from the perspective of another monthly indicator, but also for assessing the overall behavior of the market. It shows whether the high activity formed in the first months can be maintained at a more balanced and stable level.
At this stage, what is key for the market is not only the pace of growth, but the level at which activity can be consolidated. If the May forecast is confirmed, it will become another signal that the primary real estate market of the Republic of Armenia is gradually moving into a more mature and stable phase of activity.
Source of data: Cadastre.am
Prepared and supplemented by RED Invest Group
