2026-09-25
In August 2026, approximately 2,000 purchase rights are forecast to be registered in Armenia’s primary real estate market. Compared with the 1,059 purchase rights registered in August 2025, the forecast growth amounts to 88.85%.
This indicator suggests that the high activity formed in the first half of 2026 may also be maintained in the second half of the year.
Key Indicators
In August 2025, 1,059 purchase rights were registered in Armenia’s primary real estate market. The forecast figure of 2,000 for August 2026 represents 941 more registrations compared with the same month of the previous year.
| Period | Number of purchase rights |
|---|---|
| August 2025 | 1,059 |
| August 2026 forecast | 2,000 |
| Forecast annual growth | 88.85% |
Compared with the 2,080 purchase rights registered in July 2026, the August forecast is lower by only 80, or 3.85%. This difference is a natural monthly fluctuation and does not indicate weakening demand.
The August forecast is based on a comparison of monthly data for 2025 and 2026, the market’s current dynamics, and an assessment of the factors affecting the primary market. Data from the first months of 2026 show that high activity in the primary market was not limited to a single month. Following the peak recorded in April, the market entered a period of relative stabilization, while demand remained at a high level at the beginning of the second half of the year.
This suggests that the recorded growth is continuous in nature and is not driven solely by short-term factors.
Long-term installment plans, individual repayment schedules, and sales options without the direct involvement of a bank offered by developers continue to support transaction activity.
These terms make property purchases more accessible to buyers who are prepared to invest but do not wish to or cannot use traditional mortgage financing.
Following the termination of the income tax refund system in Yerevan, part of buyer interest has shifted to areas adjacent to the capital.
In locations where the system remains in effect until the end of 2026, the approaching deadline may accelerate purchasing decisions and provide an additional boost to activity in the second half of the year.
Interest from Armenians living abroad and foreign investors is also noticeable in the market. It is primarily directed toward projects with investment potential, subsequent management opportunities, and flexible payment terms.
Although this factor is not yet fully measurable through separate official statistics, it is one of the components shaping the market’s current movement.
In 2025, activity in the primary market increased gradually throughout the year. In 2026, the overall direction of movement has been maintained, but with significantly higher transaction volumes.
In other words, the market continues to follow the general seasonal pattern of the previous year, but at a new level of demand and activity.
A total of 11,116 purchase rights were registered during the first seven months of 2026.
When the August forecast is included, the overall result for January–August will reach 13,116.
During the same period of 2025, 5,643 purchase rights were registered. Therefore, if the forecast materializes, the eight-month result will increase by approximately 132% year over year.
| Period | Number of purchase rights |
|---|---|
| January–August 2025 | 5,643 |
| January–August 2026, including the forecast | 13,116 |
| Forecast growth | approximately 132% |
This comparison shows that the growth recorded in 2026 has not been driven by a single active month, but by consistently high demand throughout the entire period under review.
When assessing the autumn indicators, the different schedules of market-stimulating events should be taken into account.
Some of the reservations made during the Toon Expo exhibition held in September 2025 were subsequently converted into notarized transactions and purchase-right registrations.
In 2026, Toon Expo is scheduled for November 13–15. Therefore, additional activity resulting from the exhibition may become more visible in late November and December. This circumstance should be considered when comparing the autumn months with the previous year.
Approximately 2,000 purchase rights are forecast to be registered in Armenia’s primary real estate market in August 2026, representing 88.85% growth compared with the same month of 2025.
The forecast figure corresponds with the overall trend formed during the year: the primary market continues to follow the direction of movement observed in the previous year, but at a significantly higher level of transaction activity.
The following data were examined for the forecast:
The forecast was prepared using a combined method consisting of three components.
The overall direction of the monthly indicators, fluctuations between consecutive months, and the level of activity formed in 2026 were assessed.
The August forecast was compared with the actual figure for the same month of 2025.
Growth rate (%) = ((forecast figure − previous year’s figure) / previous year’s figure) × 100
For the August data, the calculation is as follows:
Forecast growth for August (%) = ((2,000 − 1,059) / 1,059) × 100 = 88.85%
Thus, the forecast figure for August 2026 is 88.85% higher than the figure recorded in August 2025.
The validity of the numerical result was assessed by considering:
These factors were used to verify the logical validity of the forecast rather than to establish separate numerical coefficients.
The total indicator for January–July 2026 was calculated as follows:
946 + 1,240 + 1,554 + 2,153 + 1,555 + 1,588 + 2,080 = 11,116 purchase rights
When the August forecast is included:
11,116 + 2,000 = 13,116 purchase rights
Thus, the forecast overall figure for January–August 2026 is 13,116 purchase rights.
The change compared with the January–August 2025 figure of 5,643 was calculated using the following formula:
Growth rate (%) = ((2026 figure − 2025 figure) / 2025 figure) × 100
When the corresponding data are inserted into the formula:
January–August growth (%) = ((13,116 − 5,643) / 5,643) × 100 ≈ 132.4%
Therefore, if the forecast materializes, the January–August 2026 figure will increase by approximately 132.4% compared with the same period of 2025.
The actual result may differ from the forecast due to:
Therefore, 2,000 purchase rights constitute a point forecast that may be revised following the publication of new official data.
