Growth Is a Fact: 38% Growth Forecast for September

Around 1,800 Purchase-Right Registrations Forecast for September 2026

In September 2026, approximately 1,800 registrations of rights to purchase apartments in buildings under construction are forecast in Armenia. If the forecast is confirmed, this will represent annual growth of 38% compared with the 1,304 registrations recorded in September 2025.

From January through August 2026, 13,151 purchase-right registrations were already recorded. Consequently, the actual result for the first eight months of 2026 exceeded the total recorded during the whole of 2025.

If the September forecast is confirmed, the cumulative figure for January–September will reach approximately 14,951 registrations, equivalent to around 95% of the total recorded throughout 2024.

Key Indicators for September 2026

Market Dynamics in 2025 and 2026

In every completed month of 2026, the number of purchase-right registrations exceeded the figure recorded in the corresponding month of the previous year.

The highest result was recorded in April, with 2,153 registrations. This was followed by 1,555 registrations in May and 1,588 in June. Activity increased again to 2,080 registrations in July, while 2,035 registrations were recorded in August.

The data show that Armenia’s primary real estate market does not follow a linear growth trajectory. Months of particularly high activity may be followed by relatively lower results without changing the overall annual trend.

The 1,800 registrations forecast for September are 11.5% below the August result. However, the projected figure remains substantially higher than the result recorded in the same month of the previous year. This change should therefore be viewed as relative stabilization at a high level rather than as a sharp weakening of the market.

The Full-Year 2025 Result Has Already Been Exceeded

A total of 11,719 purchase-right registrations were recorded in Armenia during 2025. By comparison, the number registered from January through August 2026 had already reached 13,151.

Therefore, the result for the first eight months of 2026 exceeded the total for the whole of 2025 by 1,432 registrations, or approximately 12.2%.

This comparison indicates that the high level of activity in 2026 is not attributable to only one or two exceptional months. The full-year result for 2025 has already been exceeded, even before the figures for September through December are included.

The 2026 Figure Is Approaching the Full-Year 2024 Result

According to the Cadastre Committee of the Republic of Armenia, 15,730 rights to purchase apartments in buildings under construction were registered in the country during 2024. Of these, 12,836 were registered in Yerevan and 2,894 in the regions. www.cadastre.am

If the September forecast is confirmed, the cumulative result for the first nine months of 2026 will reach approximately 14,951 registrations. This would equal around 95% of the result for the whole of 2024, leaving a difference of only 779 registrations.

With October, November and December still remaining, the final figure for 2026 may significantly exceed the results recorded in both 2025 and 2024.

Timing of the TOON EXPO and Its Potential Impact

In 2025, TOON EXPO was held on September 5–7. Some properties reserved during the exhibition may have subsequently resulted in notarized agreements and state registrations of purchase rights in the following days or weeks.

In 2026, TOON EXPO Invest 2026 Vol. 2 is scheduled for November 13–15. Therefore, no additional exhibition-related effect has been included in the September forecast.

The exhibition’s potential impact would be more appropriately assessed using the November data and, depending on the time required to complete the documentation, the December results as well.

At the same time, official statistics do not separately measure a direct causal relationship between TOON EXPO and the number of state registrations. The exhibition is therefore considered a possible contributing factor to activity in the primary real estate market rather than the sole cause of growth.

Key Factors Supporting Market Activity

Several factors may contribute to the continued high level of purchase-right registrations in 2026:

• long-term and phased payment plans offered by developers;
• purchase options without direct bank involvement or interest payments;
• the continued entry of new residential projects into the market;
• interest from Armenians living abroad and foreign investors;
• demand in regions adjacent to Yerevan ahead of the conclusion of the income-tax refund programme.

The impact of these factors on monthly registrations has not been measured separately. They are presented as possible conditions supporting activity in Armenia’s primary real estate market.

Conclusion

Approximately 1,800 purchase-right registrations are forecast in Armenia in September 2026. If the forecast is confirmed, the annual increase will amount to 38%, while the cumulative figure since the beginning of the year will reach approximately 14,951 registrations.

The full-year 2025 result has already been exceeded based on the actual data for January–August 2026. If the September forecast is confirmed, the result for the first nine months of 2026 will equal around 95% of the total recorded throughout 2024.

This dynamic indicates that Armenia’s primary real estate market continues to maintain a high level of activity. However, the figure of 1,800 registrations is a central forecast rather than a guaranteed result. The actual figure may be affected by state-registration timelines and the grouped registration of agreements in individual development projects.

Appendix 1: Methodology and Data Sources

Scope of the Analysis

The analysis covers the state registration of rights to purchase apartments in multifamily residential buildings under construction.

It does not include other real estate market transactions, such as the purchase and sale of completed properties, donations, leases, mortgages or the registration of other property rights.

Source Data

According to the RED Invest Group report, the number of purchase-right registrations declined from 15,730 in 2024 to 11,719 in 2025. www.redinvest.am

The Cadastre Committee of the Republic of Armenia publishes real estate market monitoring results on a monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and annual basis. cadastre.am

Forecasting Methodology

The September forecast was prepared using a combined approach incorporating monthly time-series analysis and expert adjustment.

The assessment considered:

• the monthly time series from January 2025 through August 2026;
• the actual result recorded in September 2025;
• the transaction level observed during the latest months of 2026;
• potential stabilization following the high activity recorded in July and August;
• the change in the month in which TOON EXPO is being held;
• possible timing differences in the state registration of transactions following major events.

The forecast of 1,800 registrations is the result of an expert assessment combining the time-series trend with relevant market events.

It is not presented as the output of a single automated statistical model because the available time series is relatively short, while grouped registrations in individual projects may create irregular monthly fluctuations.

Numerical Calculations

Forecast Annual Growth in September

(1,800 - 1,304) / 1,304 × 100 = 38.04%

The rounded forecast annual growth rate is 38.0%.

Forecast Change Compared with August

(1,800 - 2,035) / 2,035 × 100 = -11.55%

The rounded monthly change is –11.5%.

Cumulative Forecast for January–September 2026

13,151 + 1,800 = 14,951 registrations

Ratio to the Full-Year 2024 Result

14,951 / 15,730 × 100 = 95.05%

Registrations Remaining to Reach the Full-Year 2024 Result

15,730 - 14,951 = 779 registrations

Amount by Which the Full-Year 2025 Result Was Exceeded

13,151 - 11,719 = 1,432 registrations

1,432 / 11,719 × 100 = 12.22%

The result for the first eight months of 2026 therefore exceeded the total for the whole of 2025 by approximately 12.2%.

Principles of Interpretation

The information presented in the article is divided into three categories:

• official factual data taken from publications of the Cadastre Committee of the Republic of Armenia;
• calculated indicators derived from the source data;
• forecasts and analytical interpretations based on the time series and an assessment of potential influencing factors.

Differences between the forecast and the actual result may be caused by:

• the timing of notarization and state registration;
• grouped registration of agreements;
• special offers introduced by developers;
• changes in financing terms;
• transactions shifting from one month to another.

Authors and Tools Used

Authors: Serzh Nazaryan and Vardan Eloyan
Calculations and analysis: RED Invest Group
Tool used: ChatGPT

ChatGPT was not used as a primary source of statistical data. The factual indicators were obtained from the sources listed above, while the calculations, forecast and analytical conclusions were reviewed and refined by the authors.