Growth Is a Fact: September Growth Forecast at 38%, Actual Growth at 45.1%

Purchase-right transactions in Armenia’s primary market grew by 45.1% in September 2026

Armenia recorded 1,892 purchase-right transactions in September 2026, compared with 1,304 in September 2025. This represents year-over-year growth of 45.1%. RED Invest Group had forecast 38% growth, or 1,800 transactions, for September. The actual result exceeded the forecast by 92 transactions, while actual year-over-year growth was 7.1 percentage points higher than forecast.

Key indicators

• September 2026: 1,892 transactions.
• Year-over-year growth from September 2025: 45.1%.
• Growth forecast by RED Invest Group: 38%.
• Actual count above forecast: 92 transactions, or 5.1%.
• Change from August: down 7.0%.

Monthly activity and the September result

The number of purchase-right transactions did not increase steadily month by month in 2026. There were 2,153 transactions in April, 1,555 in May, 1,588 in June, 2,080 in July, 2,035 in August, and 1,892 in September. September’s count was lower than in the summer months, but remained well above the level recorded in the same month of 2025.

This comparison helps put the monthly decline in context: a drop from one month to the next does not by itself mean the year-over-year growth trend has ended. In September, the transaction count was lower than in August, exceeded RED Invest Group’s forecast, and was 45.1% higher than in September 2025.

Monthly distribution of purchase-right transactions in Armenia, 2025–2026. The chart compares actual 2025 figures, RED Invest Group’s 2026 forecasts, and actual 2026 figures.

Market context

The monthly number of purchase-right transactions may reflect several processes, including the supply of new apartments, the sales stage of individual projects, developers’ payment terms, buyers’ financing options, and the relative appeal of different locations. Long-term or phased payment plans may make purchasing more accessible to some buyers. The availability of new projects and their price-to-quality balance may also influence buyer choices. The separate impact of these factors on September’s transaction count has not been measured, so they should be treated as market context rather than confirmed causes.

The territorial restrictions on the mortgage income tax refund program are another part of the market context. Under Article 160 of Armenia’s Tax Code, the program was phased out across different areas of Yerevan on different dates. In the regions, the phase-out is scheduled for mortgages issued after 2027 in Aragatsotn, Ararat, Armavir, and Kotayk, and after 2029 in the other regions, with exceptions for designated border settlements. These regional differences may be relevant when examining buyers’ location choices, although the total number of transactions alone cannot show the program’s separate effect.

The event calendar provides additional context. TOON EXPO was held on September 5–7 in 2025, while the second 2026 exhibition is scheduled for November 13–15. This difference should be considered when comparing the two Septembers. However, the available data does not separately measure the exhibition’s effect on the monthly number of purchase-right transactions.

Results for the first nine months of 2026

From January through September 2026, Armenia recorded 15,043 purchase-right transactions. The total for the same period in 2025 was 6,948. The year-over-year increase for the first nine months was 116.5%.

The combined forecast for January–September 2026 was 14,350 transactions. The actual result was 693 transactions, or 4.8%, above that forecast total. This cumulative comparison adds context to September’s result: monthly figures fluctuated, but the total for January–September remained above the combined forecast.

Conclusion

In September 2026, the number of purchase-right transactions decreased from August but exceeded both the September 2025 count and RED Invest Group’s forecast. The cumulative result for the first nine months was also above the total for the same period in 2025 and above the combined forecast. Transaction counts show changes in market activity, but do not by themselves explain the individual causes behind them.

Appendix 1: Methodology and data sources

Calculations

• Forecast year-over-year growth for September = (1,800 − 1,304) / 1,304 × 100 = 38.0%
• Actual year-over-year growth for September = (1,892 − 1,304) / 1,304 × 100 = 45.1%
• Difference between actual and forecast growth = 45.1% − 38.0% = 7.1 percentage points
• Actual September count above forecast = 1,892 − 1,800 = 92 transactions
• Deviation from the September forecast = (1,892 − 1,800) / 1,800 × 100 = 5.1%
• Actual transactions, January–September 2026 = 946 + 1,240 + 1,554 + 2,153 + 1,555 + 1,588 + 2,080 + 2,035 + 1,892 = 15,043
• Transactions, January–September 2025 = 493 + 534 + 612 + 570 + 591 + 840 + 945 + 1,059 + 1,304 = 6,948
• Year-over-year growth for the first nine months = (15,043 − 6,948) / 6,948 × 100 = 116.5%
• Combined forecast, January–September 2026 = 920 + 1,250 + 1,580 + 2,100 + 1,450 + 1,550 + 1,700 + 2,000 + 1,800 = 14,350
• Deviation from the combined forecast = (15,043 − 14,350) / 14,350 × 100 = 4.8%

Official statistical data

RA Cadastre Committee: Real estate market analysis for September 2026.

RA Cadastre Committee: Real estate market analysis for September 2025.

RA Cadastre Committee: Archive of monthly real estate market analyses.

Forecast and market context

RED Invest Group: September 2026 forecast and methodology.

RED Invest Group: Primary-market analysis for the first half of 2026.

RED Invest Group: Real estate market trends for the second half of 2026.

Legal and event context

RA Tax Code, Article 160: Income tax refund provisions for mortgage interest payments.

TOON EXPO: Official guide for November 13–15, 2026.

Data processing, calculations, and forecast: RED Invest Group
Authors: Serzh Nazaryan, Vardan Eloyan
Tool used: ChatGPT