2026-01-29
When speaking about the real estate market, it is necessary to distinguish two main directions: the primary market (transactions carried out with purchase rights in newly constructed buildings) and the secondary market (mainly transactions involving old housing stock or newly constructed buildings where the buyer is not the first owner). Considering the peculiarities of Armenia’s purchase-right real estate market, it is also important to divide it into three subcategories: Yerevan, Kotayk (where the purchase-right market is significantly more active than in other regions), and the rest of the regions.
Government subsidy programs
In 2026, the continued application of the income tax refund program in all regions will sustain interest in mortgage transactions in regional markets. At the same time, considering that starting from 2027 the program will cease to operate in the regions adjacent to Yerevan, during 2026 a temporary increase in demand for new apartments may be observed in the regions, especially in the second half of the year. In Yerevan, this change will not have a significant impact, as expectations of future restrictions will not lead to notable passivity in demand, and sharp fluctuations are not expected.
Macroeconomic growth
According to various official and international sources, in 2026 Armenia is expected to have 5–5.9% economic growth, which will maintain relative stability of household incomes and purchasing power. This factor will have a positive impact on all major segments of the real estate market, supporting both residential and investment purchases. In Yerevan, macroeconomic growth will support sales in the middle and high-price segments, while in the regions it will be reflected in a gradual increase in demand for apartments, driven by employment and rising local incomes.
Tourism and international events
In 2026, stable tourist flows are expected in Armenia, along with several international political, cultural, and sports events, especially in Yerevan. This will stimulate investment demand directed at apartments serving short-term and long-term rentals. In Yerevan, this factor will have a medium to high positive impact, especially on new developments located in Kentron, Arabkir, Small Center, and neighborhoods with tourism infrastructure. In the regions, the impact will be selective, mainly expressed in Dilijan, Tsaghkadzor, Sevan, and other tourist zones, where demand for new apartments may grow, though not on a mass scale.
Domestic political climate
Parliamentary elections planned in Armenia in 2026 may lead to temporary delays in decision-making processes, both at the level of state institutions and the private sector. This factor will be reflected in the market not by a sharp decline in demand, but by postponement of purchase decisions, especially during the pre-election and immediately post-election phases. In Yerevan, where real estate transactions often involve higher value and investment nature, this waiting attitude may strengthen buyer caution and temporarily reduce transaction activity. In the regions, the impact is expected to be more limited, as apartment purchases are mainly driven by housing necessity and are less dependent on political processes.
Inflation
In 2026, controlled inflation is expected, not exceeding the Central Bank’s target range. This will allow construction costs to remain relatively stable without sharp price fluctuations. In Yerevan, the impact of inflation will be neutral to slightly negative, as price increases are limited by buyer solvency. In the regions, where price sensitivity is higher, even small inflationary pressure may slow sales, but significant decline is not expected.
Rental market – investment potential
In 2026, the rental market will continue its transition from high profitability to stable profitability. The pace of rent growth will slow significantly, and in some areas a slight decrease may even occur. In Yerevan, this trend will reduce investment demand for new developments, especially in cases where rental income does not cover mortgage payments. In the regions, the impact of the rental market will remain limited, except for tourist zones, where short-term rentals will continue to attract interest.
Home Expo (March 2026)
The “Home Expo” exhibition planned for March 2026 will serve as a short-term driver of real estate market activity, lasting mainly 3–4 months, especially in the segment of new apartments. The exhibition will bring together developers, banks, and buyers on one platform, increasing market visibility and awareness. In Yerevan, the impact of “Home Expo” will be expressed in partial activation of postponed demand, especially among buyers who are in the selection phase and waiting for comparative offers, promotions, or simplified mortgage conditions. This may lead to short-term growth in transactions. In the regions, the impact of “Home Expo” will be more limited, but it may contribute to raising awareness of regional new projects and in some cases stimulate demand among buyers considering purchasing outside Yerevan, combining subsidy programs and affordable prices. “Home Expo” is considered one of the key drivers of market activation. Its organization in March 2026 will lead to significant activation not only in the short-term phase following the exhibition, but also have longer-lasting effects due to expectations formed from the beginning of the year. This will encourage developers to prepare and present special offers, discount packages, and new formats of mortgage cooperation aimed at participation in “Home Expo.” As a result, market activation will start earlier and manifest not only during the exhibition but also before and after it, contributing to gradual yet stable demand growth.
Summarizing and analyzing past experience, and combining the effects of the above factors, we forecast the following changes in the market: In 2026, around 12,700 purchase-right transactions will be registered in Armenia. The purchase-right market in Yerevan will account for 6,600 transactions (52%), while the regions will account for 6,100 transactions (48%).
